20 October 2011
My Financial Plan
(Updated on 26 Aug 2013)
1.0 Assets
1.1 Bank Savings
Time depositsSavings accounts
1.2 Mini Cash Fund for Children
Monthly Transfer (to convert to Nikko STI ETF 100 when it drops by 50% or more from historical high, best for kids - 26 Aug 2013)1.3 Salary Income
1.4 Property
2.0 Insurance
NTUC I-Term Life Insurance (Self, wife)
Company Group Term Life Insurance Underwritten by HSBC (Self)
Company Group Critical Illness Insurance Underwritten by HSBC (Rider to Company Group Term Life Insurance)(Self)
Company Group Personal Accident Insurance Underwritten by AXA(Self)
CPF Medishield Life (Self, wife, children)
Company Group Hospital and Surgical Insurance Underwritten by Tokio Marine Life(Self)
Company Group Outpatient Insurance for GP / Specialist Underwritten by Tokio Marine Life(Self)
Company Group Business Travel Insurance Underwritten by AXA(Self)
CPF Home Protection Scheme (HPS) (Self, wife)
CPF Dependants' Protection Schedme (DPS) (Wife)
Home Fire Insurance Underwritten by AIA (changed to ETIQA Insurance Berhad, 1 North Bridge Road #08-01 High Street Centre Singapore 179094 from 20 Apr 2012, Tel 6331 9253, 6331 9254) (Self, wife)
3.0 Debt & Expenditures
Property Mortgage
Family Food
Water & Power Bills
Community Town Council Charges
Telephone & Broadband
Tuition
Fund for Parents
School Fees
Painting Course for Children
Piano Course for Children
School Meals
Travel & Entertainment
Shareinvestor Subscription
Poems ProTrader Subscription
4.0 Investment Plan
4.1 Long Term Investment Plan
4.1.1 CPF
CPF Ordinary Account (to convert investable portion to Nikko STI ETF 100 when it drops by 50% or more from historical high - 26 Aug 2013)
CPF Special Account (to convert investable portion to Nikko STI ETF 100 when it drops by 50% or more from historical high - 26 Aug 2013)
CPF MediSave
4.1.2 A Small Pension Fund with Mercer in Australia
to convert to EWA or stock index ETF traded in Australia stock market when the ETF drops by 50% or more from historical high - 26 Aug 20134.1.3 Monthly Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) on STI ETF 1000 (Committed, ongoing, with Phillip Securities Pte Ltd)
Buy S$5,000 worth of STI ETF units through Phillip Share Builders Plan(SBP) by Phillip Securities on 18th day of every month irrespective of price. Started in May 2011 and ongoing, investment period - 30 years or more
Objective - To achieve 7 to 8% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) consistently
Note - units bought can be transferred to margin account, if necessary, to increase purchasing power up to 3 times of net assets.
(To expand with supporting documents)
4.1.4 Long Term Stock Index ETF Investment (With Standard Chartered Bank Singapore)
STI ETF 1000 (with SCB, to continue to buy whenever the market looks bleak or pessimistic)
Nikko AM STI ETF 100 (with SCB, to continue to buy whenever the market looks bleak or pessimistic) (Nikko AM STI ETF 100 is the former DBS STI ETF 100. DBS Asset Management was acquired by Nikko Asset Management. Nikko AM is majority-owned by The Sumitomo Trust and Banking Co., Ltd., while DBS Bank Ltd is the second largest shareholder, controlling 7% plus. Employees also own a stake in the company.)
4.1.5 Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) At Price Correction Levels of 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95% From Historic High (Plan, to implement)
Use margin account (why? - shares bought can be used as collateral for further DCA and short term trading as mentioned below in case cash is depleted during DCA at various correction levels).
Five excellent opportunities were created for long term investors like Warren Buffet to accumulate blue chip index funds (if available) and blue chips from the past 7 serious corrections in Singapore stock market in the past 32 years (I only have so many data) that we could take advantage of by using the method mentioned above.
STI achieved more than 100% profit each time in 4 out of these 5 excellent opportunities after corrections; While STI achieved 91% profit so far after the latest correction due to US financial crisis in 2008. STI achieved a profit as high as 181% (formula: (High after serious correction - DCA Price) / DCA Price = 181%) after a serious correction from high in Jan 1984,
114% after a serious correction from high in Aug 1987,
132% after a serious correction (caused by Asian financial crisis triggered by currency attacks by George Soros, a Hungarian-American Jewish financial speculator) from high in Feb 1996,
203% after a serious correction (caused by bursting of US Internet bubble in 2000 and 911 terrorist attack to World Trade Center in New York by Osama Bin Laden of Al-Qaeda on 11 Sep 2001) from high achieved in Jan 2000,
91% so far after a serious correction (caused by US Sub prime mortgage crisis and collapse of Lehman Brothers) from high achieved in Oct 2007.
In total, STI achieved a CAGR of 11.44% (formula: (2^5)^(1/32)-1 = 11.44%) assuming that we had bought STI 5 times and had achieved 100% profit on average each time in the past 32 years.
In fact, some profit could also be achieved from remaining 2 out of 7 opportunities created by serious corrections in the past 32 years. Although STI failed to drop 50% or more during these 2 corrections, but some large / mid caps could fall 50% or more and thus buying opportunities could still be created.
Some dividend could also be collected in the past 32 years.
Therefore, STI could achieve a better CAGR than 11.44% as projected above, which would be much higher than 7 to 8% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) that was supposed to produce by means of "Monthly Fixed Amount Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) on STI ETF".
Guess what will happen if we have another 5 times of serious corrections in the coming 30 years?
Just buy and hold until DCA prices double, our money will become 25.77 times of current amount ((formula: (1+11.44%)^30 = 25.77)! In other words, we will have 25.77 million dollars in 30 years if we have an investment fund of 1 million dollars now!
Targeted market - SGX
Targeted counters - STI ETF, Nikko AM STI ETF, majority of large caps (STI 30 components) and some selected mid caps
Targeted market - US Markets
Targeted counters - Large (>US$5b) and solid (fund buys index components only and diversified with many counters preferably more than 100) ETF's such as SPY MDY QQQ DIA EEM IWM EFA EWZ XLE XLF FXI GDX VWO IVV XLU XLK IWF VTI IWB IWD IJR IVW VGK IWR IJH VEU VEA VOO GLD SLV. Buy levels (retracing 50, 60, 70, 80, 90% from 2007 high) and placed alerts at 50% in the IB trading platform already on 04 Jun 2012.
Investment period - 1 to 3 years
TP - Doubling of DCA price or higher
(To expand with supporting documents)
4.1.6 Buy quality condominium during economic recessions / crises when price drops by 50% or more if fund is available then
Investment period - 1 to 3 years
TP - doubling of purchase price or higher
4.2 Short Term Trading Plan
4.2.1 Trade long using margin A/C
Trading conditions
Trend is up (SMA50 > SMA100 > SMA200 and all must point upwards) and price breaks out of double bottom formation
Targeted Market
SGX, HK, US, KL(if chart is available), UK (if available for trading)
Targeted counters
Large caps and selected SG mid caps
Trading platform
Poems / Poems ProTrader / IB
Order type
Limit / stop / stop limit
SL
Stop loss, to place stop limit order daily if possible
TP
To be determined by trailing stop if possible
Note: A few stocks, COSCO Sinagpore, NOL, Noble Group, Nam Cheong, bought a few years ago are still in the margin trading account with Philip Securities Pte Ltd icluding. Nam Cheong is in paper profit. I believe the other three will recover their paper losses sooner or later in the future. In addition, there is about S$24k invested in the Phillip Securities Managed Cash Fund (MMF).
4.2.2 Trade short using CFD A/C
Trading conditions
Trend is down (SMA50 < SMA100 < SMA200 and all must point downwards) and price breaks out of double top formation
Targeted Market
SGX, HK, US, KL(if chart is available), UK (if available for trading)
Targeted counters
Large caps and selected SG mid caps
Trading platform
Poems CFDTrader / IB
Order type
Limit / stop / stop limit
SL
Stop loss, to place stop limit order daily
TP
To be determined by trailing stop
5.0 FAQ
Why buy CPF Medishield instead of Private Medishield or private health plan?
Former NTUC Income chief TKL explained excellently, to attach what he said.
Why trade HK, US, UK (if possible) and KL markets also?
To have sufficient number of large caps so that more potential opportunities can be identified since the trading conditions set above are very stringent and thus opportunities are rare if no at all. Trading setup with stringent conditions produces high probability rate of success (as high as 80%) (to expand with supporting document).
I met this problem and made no money from 2009 low so far despite I have an excellent trading system because I focus on Singapore market only but opportunities here are rare. When I looked at other markets such as HK and US, there were many opportunities that had met the stringent conditions mentioned above!
Why not trade Forex any more?
Real trading with Poems (lost about S$10,000) and Demo trading with Oanda (Lost about US$12,500 of fake money given by Oanda) in the past few months indicate that forex was not or will not be a cup of tea for me. US$12,500 in total was lost even though my risk per trade is S$100 to 300 only for demo trading!
On the other hand, equities are more stable and more predictable.
I am more comfortable with equities because I know many good opportunities will still be out there in the future.
(Update to be continued...)
6.0 Reference
S&P 500 Price (Inflation Adjusted)
S&P 500 PE Ratio
Risk management
The 3 Secrets of Margin Trading - Position Sizing, Risk Management and How to Track Total Exposure
Position Sizing
Position Sizing: How to Limit Risk & Maximize Gains
STI ETF
4 Reasons to invest in STI ETF
Why and How to do long term investment in STI ETF using Dollar Cost Averaging Method?
Nikko AM STI ETF, Investment Plan
Buy STI ETF Using Dollar Cost Average Method
Trading System
The most profitable and safest trading system in a bull market
New dummy trading system
Reflection on Trend - 08 Nov 07, Thu
TA Essence in my trading system
Historical Teaching
疯狂的代价：世界上最惨烈的几次股市大崩盘
Labels: CFD, Dollar Cost Averaging, ETF, Health, Margin, plan, Position Sizing, Risk Management, STI ETF, Stock Trading System, Thoughts
